Moscow is seeking to turn negotiations over Ukraine into a broader agreement on European security. The United States is examining the possibility, while European leaders oppose any reshaping of the continent's security arrangements without their involvement.
Vladimir Putin is attempting to open a geopolitical negotiation that could influence European security for decades. Russia wants to broaden talks on ending the war in Ukraine to include a comprehensive agreement with the West on the balance of power across Europe.
According to reports by Reuters, Axios and Euronews, Moscow is reviving longstanding demands to limit NATO enlargement and revise the alliance's military presence in eastern Europe.
The reference to Yalta in 1945
The head of Moscow's negotiating team, Vladimir Medinsky, outlined Russia's thinking on 11 November, calling for a new European security system and referring to the historic Yalta and Potsdam conferences.
Those conferences in 1945 played a major role in determining the post-war balance between the great powers and shaping Europe's subsequent order.
The reference is significant. Moscow is seeking an agreement that extends beyond Ukraine's borders to include wider commitments on NATO's military presence and potential enlargement.
US requests a Russian proposal
Axios reported that Donald Trump's administration had asked Moscow to present a specific proposal for a future security agreement with Europe.
The US initiative also calls on Russia to identify measures it could take to reduce tensions and prevent further conflicts.
Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have taken central roles in contacts with Moscow and Kyiv. Washington appears willing to examine a peace agreement for Ukraine alongside a broader European security framework.
However, according to US briefings, any final agreement would require the consent of the Europeans and Ukraine.
Europe insists on a seat at the table
Russia's aims have caused serious concern in European capitals. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear that there could be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine, or about Europe without European participation.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that Moscow was trying to shift the discussion away from ending the war and towards reshaping the European security system.
At the Dublin summit on 13 November, it was agreed that France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland would represent Europe in future negotiations, alongside representatives of European institutions. NATO participation was also expected.
Russia, however, had not given an unconditional commitment to accept European participation in the talks.
What is at stake
Behind these diplomatic moves lies a much broader question: who will set Europe's security rules after the war in Ukraine?
Russia seeks commitments limiting NATO's military influence near its borders. European governments, by contrast, maintain that every country must retain the right to choose its alliances and reject a return to a system of spheres of influence.
At present, there is no agreement on a new “Yalta”, nor a mutually accepted negotiating framework for reshaping European security.
Nevertheless, Moscow's effort to shift the discussion from the Ukrainian front to the future of Europe as a whole shows that the diplomatic process now extends well beyond a ceasefire agreement.
